美国工作形式一片大好～上半年平均就新增14万5千个就业机会。只要你不是汽车制造业，我看你都不用担心了。简单说一下，healthcare, education, goverment, leisure都有大幅度增长。不过有一点就是如果要指望靠公司加薪看来收获不会很大，还是跳槽来得快。

转载自Wall Street Journal

ROGRESS REPORT
Strong Jobs Data Signal
Economy Is Gaining Steam

WASHINGTON — The job market’s solid performance in
June, along with recent signs of vigor in manufacturing and a buoyant
stock market, suggest the U.S. economy is entering the second half with
considerable steam despite nervousness on Wall Street about cracks in
the credit markets and woes in housing.

Employers outside agriculture added 132,000 people to
their payrolls in June, and tallies for the previous two months were
revised upward, the Labor Department said Friday. Unemployment remained
a low 4.5%.

The report suggests the economy is healthy enough to
further diminish the chances that the Federal Reserve will cut interest
rates in the next few months, and investors Friday pared back those
odds. At the same time, the report cast doubt on the possibility that
the job market is so tight it is fueling inflationary wage gains.

In short, the U.S. economy seems to be enjoying a
Goldilocks moment — not too hot, not too cold — after a few quarters
of subpar growth and a few flickers of uncomfortably high inflation
that conjured images of the 1970s.

Job growth averaged 145,000 in the first half of the
year, slower than last year’s pace but faster than some Fed officials
anticipated, given demographic changes that are slowing the growth of
the labor force. Average growth in the wages of production and other
nonsupervisory workers remained muted, suggesting the low unemployment
rate still isn’t putting much pressure on labor costs.

The U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of just 0.7%
in the first quarter, but forecasters expect the government to report
at the end of July that gross domestic product grew at better than a 3%
pace in the second quarter. Because of volatile swings in inventories,
economists have averaged the first two quarters to get a clearer
reading on the underlying health of the economy.

Brian Sack, an economist with the forecasting firm
Macroeconomic Advisers, expects growth for the rest of this year to be
close to the expected long-term trend of just under 3%, and said, “The
employment situation is helping that outlook.”

Nigel Gault, economist at Global Insight, says
second-quarter growth — which he expects was between 3% and 3.5% –
likely overstates the economy’s strength, but he anticipates the rest
of this year will be “closer to the second quarter” than to the first.
He anticipates second-half growth will be about 2.5%.

A Wall Street Journal survey of forecasters,
released Monday, found that on average they see the economy growing at
a 2.5% pace in the third quarter and 2.8% in the fourth, though many
anticipate growth above 3% for the rest of the year.

Corporate executives are sounding similar notes. “The
weakened industrial sector is currently limiting demand for
transportation services,” FedEx
Corp.’s chief executive, Fred Smith, said in releasing the company’s
earnings late last month, “but we expect the U.S. economy to begin to
show modest year-over-year improvement in the late-summer-to-early-fall
time frame.”

The Fed still sees the labor market as tight — and
the low jobless rate has prompted it to warn that the “high level of
resource utilization” could enable firms operating near full capacity
and workers in a tight labor market to win higher prices and wages. But
the central bank is less certain than it was six months ago that the
unemployment rate presages that sort of threat.

Fed officials have expected the slowdown in growth to
push up unemployment, creating slack in the economy that would keep
wage and price gains from accelerating. The economy did slow, but
unemployment didn’t rise — and the pace of wage inflation didn’t
quicken, a suggestion that the jobless rate, though near a six-year
low, isn’t indicative of a worker shortage.

Average hourly earnings of production and
nonsupervisory workers rose 0.3% in June from May, the Labor Department
said. Over the past year, these earnings were up 3.9% from a year
earlier, in line with the rate of growth for the past year. (Consumer
prices rose 2.7% for the 12 months ending in May. The June reading
comes July 18.)

The more comprehensive employment-cost index was up
3.5% in the first quarter from the previous year, close to the range
for the past several years. Acceleration of broader measures of
compensation in the first quarter may reflect the vagaries of employee
stock options and one-time bonuses.

Janet Yellen, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of
San Francisco, in a speech delivered Friday via video to the Risk
Management Institute of Singapore before the release of the jobs data,
noted the possibility that “labor markets may not actually be
particularly tight.” She said it is possible that low unemployment amid
slowing growth means the economy’s long-term trend rate had dropped,
but she was open to “benign explanations” instead.

Such uncertainty means that the Fed, while still
expecting unemployment to rise, may not need to see it rise as much to
conclude that inflation risks are easing. Still, the Fed is likely to
remain vigilant on inflation for now. Even if the job market isn’t as
tight as the low unemployment rate implies, it remains “somewhat
tight,” Ms. Yellen said, which presents a risk of inflation. The Fed is
also wary that a recent dip in core inflation, which excludes food and
energy, is temporary, and the indirect effects of rising import and
commodity prices could yet nudge it up again.

With joblessness near six-year lows and wages rising,
albeit slowly, consumers have the[##_1R|7439694803.gif|width=”222″ height=”268″ alt=”User inserted image”|_##] wherewithal to keep spending despite
continuing weakness in home prices, which decreases homeowners’ wealth;
signs of a pullback by lenders; and rising energy prices. Consumer
spending makes up about two-thirds of economic output; even modest
growth of this component can offset sizable drags in other sectors.

In a sign that weakness in housing hasn’t rippled –
yet — through the economy, construction payrolls advanced 12,000 last
month. Construction-employment gains were concentrated in
nonresidential building and contracting, which has remained resistant
to the slowdown gripping the residential sector. Payrolls also rose in
health care, education, leisure and government. Manufacturing firms cut
18,000 jobs, the 12th-straight decline. Employment in retail trade and
professional and business services also posted losses.