Comments on: Behind AIG’s Fall, Risk Models Failed to Pass Real-World Test http://my.textjourney.com/eric/%e5%95%86%e4%b8%9a%e8%b4%a2%e7%bb%8fbusiness/behindaigsfallriskmodelsfailedtopassreal-worldtest/ Eric's words Sun, 12 Feb 2012 07:25:41 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.1 By: s http://my.textjourney.com/eric/%e5%95%86%e4%b8%9a%e8%b4%a2%e7%bb%8fbusiness/behindaigsfallriskmodelsfailedtopassreal-worldtest/#comment-5458 s Tue, 08 Sep 2009 04:16:58 +0000 http://my.textjourney.com/eric/?p=1059#comment-5458 <a href='#comment-5456' rel="nofollow">@eric</a> - “那么有的跌，也有的涨，”这个。。。。好像赚得也少了嘛。。。。<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('5458','s'); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('5458','s','<a href=\'#comment-5456\' rel=\"nofollow\">@eric<\/a> - âé£ä¹æçè·ï¼ä¹æç涨ï¼âè¿ä¸ªãããã好åèµå¾ä¹å°äºåãããã'); return false;">Quote</a></div> @eric - “那么有的跌，也有的涨，”这个。。。。好像赚得也少了嘛。。。。
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]]> By: eric http://my.textjourney.com/eric/%e5%95%86%e4%b8%9a%e8%b4%a2%e7%bb%8fbusiness/behindaigsfallriskmodelsfailedtopassreal-worldtest/#comment-5456 eric Tue, 08 Sep 2009 03:57:16 +0000 http://my.textjourney.com/eric/?p=1059#comment-5456 <a href="#comment-5283" rel="nofollow">@s</a> - 任何一环出现关系都会影响到下一个环节，这就是risk，通常这种是credit risk。你想卖这样的衍生品但是不一定有人就会买。比如信誉低的证券商就卖得差，他们只能给更多的返还率。风险的分散降低在投资分散上面，因为你买一个package，有可能包含不同的股票，那么有的跌，也有的涨，但是整体都跌的可能性就会比较低。这里的risk，就是指的是投资风险，和上面说的credit risk有区别。<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('5456','eric'); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('5456','eric','<a href=\"#comment-5283\" rel=\"nofollow\">@s<\/a> -\nä»»ä½ä¸ç¯åºç°å³ç³»é½ä¼å½±åå°ä¸ä¸ä¸ªç¯èï¼è¿å°±æ¯riskï¼é常è¿ç§æ¯credit riskãä½ æ³åè¿æ ·çè¡çåä½æ¯ä¸ä¸å®æ人就ä¼ä¹°ãæ¯å¦ä¿¡èªä½çè¯å¸åå°±åå¾å·®ï¼ä»ä»¬åªè½ç»æ´å¤çè¿è¿çãé£é©çåæ£éä½å¨æèµåæ£ä¸é¢ï¼å ä¸ºä½ ä¹°ä¸ä¸ªpackageï¼æå¯è½åå«ä¸åçè¡ç¥¨ï¼é£ä¹æçè·ï¼ä¹æç涨ï¼ä½æ¯æ´ä½é½è·çå¯è½æ§å°±ä¼æ¯è¾ä½ãè¿éçriskï¼å°±æ¯æçæ¯æèµé£é©ï¼åä¸é¢è¯´çcredit riskæåºå«ã'); return false;">Quote</a></div> @s -
任何一环出现关系都会影响到下一个环节，这就是risk，通常这种是credit risk。你想卖这样的衍生品但是不一定有人就会买。比如信誉低的证券商就卖得差，他们只能给更多的返还率。风险的分散降低在投资分散上面，因为你买一个package，有可能包含不同的股票，那么有的跌，也有的涨，但是整体都跌的可能性就会比较低。这里的risk，就是指的是投资风险，和上面说的credit risk有区别。
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]]> By: s http://my.textjourney.com/eric/%e5%95%86%e4%b8%9a%e8%b4%a2%e7%bb%8fbusiness/behindaigsfallriskmodelsfailedtopassreal-worldtest/#comment-5283 s Sun, 23 Aug 2009 19:30:47 +0000 http://my.textjourney.com/eric/?p=1059#comment-5283 太长了，没看两句。 我不懂这些，但一直有个疑问： 书上说，公司可以通过发行证券让别人买来把风险分散给买家，买家在此基础上又可以继续发行证券分散风险。就这么一级一级的下去，其实最后应该会形成一个树杈吧。社会中的个体是不能独立开的，所以这些树杈，终究会以某种方式交合吧。也许不一定是证券的买卖关系，可能是消费能力，是其他的关联。 我想问的是，如果其中一环出了问题，剩下的怎么逃得掉？把这个社会看成一个封闭体系的话，总体的风险哪里降低了呢？<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('5283','s'); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('5283','s','太é¿äºï¼æ²¡ç两å¥ã\r\næä¸æè¿äºï¼ä½ä¸ç´æ个çé®ï¼\r\n书ä¸è¯´ï¼å¬å¸å¯ä»¥éè¿åè¡è¯å¸è®©å«äººä¹°æ¥æé£é©åæ£ç»ä¹°å®¶ï¼ä¹°å®¶å¨æ­¤åºç¡ä¸åå¯ä»¥ç»§ç»­åè¡è¯å¸åæ£é£é©ãå°±è¿ä¹ä¸çº§ä¸çº§çä¸å»ï¼å¶å®æååºè¯¥ä¼å½¢æä¸ä¸ªæ æå§ã社ä¼ä¸­ç个ä½æ¯ä¸è½ç¬ç«å¼çï¼æ以è¿äºæ æï¼ç»ç©¶ä¼ä»¥æç§æ¹å¼äº¤åå§ãä¹è®¸ä¸ä¸å®æ¯è¯å¸çä¹°åå³ç³»ï¼å¯è½æ¯æ¶è´¹è½åï¼æ¯å¶ä»çå³èã\r\nææ³é®çæ¯ï¼å¦æå¶ä¸­ä¸ç¯åºäºé®é¢ï¼å©ä¸çæä¹éå¾æï¼æè¿ä¸ªç¤¾ä¼çæä¸ä¸ªå°é­ä½ç³»çè¯ï¼æ»ä½çé£é©åªééä½äºå¢ï¼'); return false;">Quote</a></div> 太长了，没看两句。
我不懂这些，但一直有个疑问：
书上说，公司可以通过发行证券让别人买来把风险分散给买家，买家在此基础上又可以继续发行证券分散风险。就这么一级一级的下去，其实最后应该会形成一个树杈吧。社会中的个体是不能独立开的，所以这些树杈，终究会以某种方式交合吧。也许不一定是证券的买卖关系，可能是消费能力，是其他的关联。
我想问的是，如果其中一环出了问题，剩下的怎么逃得掉？把这个社会看成一个封闭体系的话，总体的风险哪里降低了呢？
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]]> By: » Behind AIG’s Fall, Risk Models Failed to Pass Real-World Test http://my.textjourney.com/eric/%e5%95%86%e4%b8%9a%e8%b4%a2%e7%bb%8fbusiness/behindaigsfallriskmodelsfailedtopassreal-worldtest/#comment-1330 » Behind AIG’s Fall, Risk Models Failed to Pass Real-World Test Mon, 03 Nov 2008 05:55:55 +0000 http://my.textjourney.com/eric/?p=1059#comment-1330 [...] Bondsnavy.com wrote an interesting post today onHere’s a quick excerptBehind AIG’s Fall, Risk Models Failed to Pass Real-World Test Gary Gorton, a 57-year-old finance professor and jazz buff, is emerging as an unlikely central figure in the near-collapse of American International Group Inc. [IMG [Gary Gorton]] Gary Gorton Mr. Gorton, who teaches at Yale School of Management, is best known for his influential academic papers, which have been cited in speeches by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. But he also has a lucrative part-time gig: devising co [...]<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('1330','&raquo; Behind AIGâs Fall, Risk Models Failed to Pass Real-World Test'); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('1330','&raquo; Behind AIGâs Fall, Risk Models Failed to Pass Real-World Test','&#91;...&#93; Bondsnavy.com wrote an interesting post today onHere&#8217;s a quick excerptBehind AIGâs Fall, Risk Models Failed to Pass Real-World Test Gary Gorton, a 57-year-old finance professor and jazz buff, is emerging as an unlikely central figure in the near-collapse of American International Group Inc. &#91;IMG &#91;Gary Gorton&#93;&#93; Gary Gorton Mr. Gorton, who teaches at Yale School of Management, is best known for his influential academic papers, which have been cited in speeches by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. But he also has a lucrative part-time gig: devising co &#91;...&#93;'); return false;">Quote</a></div> [...] Bondsnavy.com wrote an interesting post today onHere’s a quick excerptBehind AIG’s Fall, Risk Models Failed to Pass Real-World Test Gary Gorton, a 57-year-old finance professor and jazz buff, is emerging as an unlikely central figure in the near-collapse of American International Group Inc. [IMG [Gary Gorton]] Gary Gorton Mr. Gorton, who teaches at Yale School of Management, is best known for his influential academic papers, which have been cited in speeches by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. But he also has a lucrative part-time gig: devising co [...]
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]]> By: Behind AIG’s Fall, Risk Models Failed to Pass Real-World Test · www.business-on.info http://my.textjourney.com/eric/%e5%95%86%e4%b8%9a%e8%b4%a2%e7%bb%8fbusiness/behindaigsfallriskmodelsfailedtopassreal-worldtest/#comment-1329 Behind AIG’s Fall, Risk Models Failed to Pass Real-World Test · www.business-on.info Mon, 03 Nov 2008 05:12:44 +0000 http://my.textjourney.com/eric/?p=1059#comment-1329 [...] Read more here:  Behind AIG’s Fall, Risk Models Failed to Pass Real-World Test [...]<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('1329','Behind AIGâs Fall, Risk Models Failed to Pass Real-World Test &middot; www.business-on.info'); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('1329','Behind AIGâs Fall, Risk Models Failed to Pass Real-World Test &middot; www.business-on.info','&#91;...&#93; Read more here:  Behind AIGâs Fall, Risk Models Failed to Pass Real-World Test &#91;...&#93;'); return false;">Quote</a></div> [...] Read more here:  Behind AIG’s Fall, Risk Models Failed to Pass Real-World Test [...]
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